A thesis is an argument
A strong thesis states what you believe, why the market may not fully reflect it and what evidence could confirm or disprove the view.
Use a five-part structure
Keep the main argument compact enough to explain without notes.
- Business: What does the company do well?
- Catalyst: What may cause results or perception to change?
- Evidence: Which facts support the view?
- Valuation: What assumptions are reflected in the price?
- Risk: What would make the thesis wrong?
Separate fact from interpretation
Label what is known, what management claims and what you infer. Credibility grows when an audience can trace each conclusion back to reliable evidence.
End with a decision
State the recommended action, time horizon, position size and signals you will monitor. A thesis without a decision is only a company description.